Projections indicate potential for growth, but refining expansions lag demand in high-growth paths, requiring ~$100-150 billion in investments for new or modernized facilities to align with Agenda 2063's goals of energy security and industrialization.
Key challenges include low refinery utilization (due to obsolescence, subsidies, and theft), geopolitical instability, and slow exploration. Agenda 2063 prioritizes value addition via local refining, AfCFTA integration, and cleaner fuels, but realization hinges on policy reforms and private investment (e.g., Dangote Refinery adding 0.65 mb/d).
Scenario Comparison: Supply vs. Demand by 2063
Projections extrapolate IEA/OPEC data to 2050 (e.g., IEA Stated Policies demand doubles to ~8 mb/d; OPEC supply growth +3 mb/d) with conservative 0.5-1% annual post-2050 growth for supply (factoring exploration limits) and scenario-specific rates for demand. Cumulative crude needs: High scenario ~140 billion barrels (covered by reserves + undiscovered ~200 billion); sustainable ~70 billion (easily met).
Scenario | Projected Demand (mb/d) | Projected Crude Production (mb/d) | Projected Refining Capacity (mb/d) | Self-Sufficiency Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stated Policies (Business-as-Usual) | ~11.0 | ~7.5-8.0 (OPEC +3 mb/d growth to 2050; peaked post-2010 per IEA) | ~6.0-7.0 (+1.2 mb/d by 2030; +23% total by 2050 per IEA, slower thereafter) | No: Production shortfall (~3 mb/d); refining gap widens to ~5 mb/d. Imports rise 2-3x; costs ~$50B/year. Reserves ample, but export focus persists. |
Announced Pledges (Moderate Transition) | ~6.5 | ~7.5-8.0 | ~6.0-7.0 | Marginal: Production covers crude needs; refining near-parity but utilization must hit 80%+. Feasible with Dangote-scale projects (10+ new refineries needed). |
Sustainable Development (Net-Zero Aligned) | ~4.3 | ~7.0-7.5 (decline post-2030 as renewables rise) | ~5.5-6.5 (focus on efficient, low-carbon refineries) | Yes: Excess production for exports; capacity exceeds demand with biofuels/EV integration. Aligns with Agenda 2063's green energy flagships. |
Detailed Breakdown
Crude Resources & Production:
Reserves: 130+ billion barrels, concentrated in Nigeria (37 bbbl), Libya (48 bbbl), Angola (9 bbbl). Undiscovered potential adds ~200 billion via offshore/deepwater (e.g., Namibia, Senegal). Sufficient for all scenarios, as even high-demand cumulative extraction (~3.5 billion barrels/year average) totals <140 billion over 40 years.
Production Outlook: IEA forecasts stagnation/decline below 2010 peak (~7 mb/d) due to maturing fields and underinvestment. OPEC is more optimistic, projecting +3 mb/d growth to ~7.5 mb/d by 2050, driven by non-OPEC Africa (e.g., Guyana-like but smaller). To 2063: Limited upside without $500B+ upstream investment; Africa contributes ~10% of global supply growth but lags Asia's demand pull.
Refining Capacity & Self-Sufficiency:
Current State: 57 refineries (mostly <100 kb/d), led by Egypt (0.89 mb/d), Nigeria (1.13 mb/d post-Dangote), Algeria (0.68 mb/d), South Africa (0.51 mb/d). Only Algeria is net exporter; Nigeria exports 95% crude despite demand. Import bill: ~$40B/year, exposing economies to volatility.
Projections: +1.2 mb/d by 2030 (e.g., Nigeria's modulars, Algeria's expansions), reaching ~4.5 mb/d. To 2050: IEA +23% (~4.1 mb/d base, but +1.4 mb/d OPEC new builds imply ~5.5 mb/d). To 2063: ~6 mb/d max without acceleration, as closures offset additions (global net +4.2 mb/d by 2030). Demand tripling per OPEC exacerbates gap unless utilization hits 80-85%.
Path to Sufficiency: Agenda 2063/AfSEM enables regional hubs (e.g., cross-border pipelines). Success stories: Dangote covers 30% Nigeria demand.
Needs: 15-20 new/modernized refineries, skills training, subsidy removal. In sustainable paths, refining shrinks 20% by 2050 (EVs/biofuels), easing pressure.
In summary, Africa's resources can meet demand across scenarios, but refining infrastructure requires transformative investment (~2-3x current capacity in high paths) to avoid import dependence.
Sustainable trajectories offer the clearest yes, supporting Agenda 2063's vision of resilient, integrated energy systems. For country-specific details, see IEA/OPEC outlooks.
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