However, the reality is that Botswana remains far below the African energy security benchmark of 90 days of strategic fuel reserves.

This gap exposes the country to serious risks if international supply chains are disrupted.

Fuel supply chains are long and fragile.

Botswana imports nearly all of its petroleum products through regional supply routes, primarily via South Africa and Namibia. Any disruption, whether geopolitical, logistical, or technical, can quickly ripple through the domestic economy.

Recent events demonstrate this vulnerability.

In late February 2026, more than 3.3 million litres of petrol were quarantined after suspected contamination by metallic elements such as lead and manganese in a shipment from Namibia. While the issue was contained, it highlights how quickly supply problems can arise.

When national reserves are measured in days rather than months, even a small disruption becomes a major risk.

Botswana’s current vulnerability did not emerge overnight.

Part of the problem can be traced to the scandal surrounding the National Petroleum Fund (NPF).

The NPF was originally established to achieve two key objectives:

However, the 2018 embezzlement scandal involving approximately P250 million significantly undermined the fund’s effectiveness.

The consequences were far-reaching:

Infrastructure delays:
Funds that were intended to support strategic storage projects—such as the Tshele Hills storage facility—were diverted. Years later, Botswana still lacks adequate fuel storage capacity.

Reduced price protection:
The fund was meant to cushion Batswana against international price volatility. After the scandal, the fund struggled to meet under-recoveries, resulting in more frequent price adjustments at the pump.

Financial strain:
By 2021, claims by fuel companies against the fund reached P525 million, while the available balance was only P451 million.

Legal distractions:
Ongoing investigations and prosecutions, including cases involving well-known figures, have kept the issue in the courts and diverted attention from long-term energy planning.

What makes the current situation particularly frustrating is that Botswana has had viable private sector solutions for more than a decade.

There are several bankable projects proposed by Batswana investors to build strategic fuel storage depots in locations such as:

If even a handful of these projects had been implemented ten years ago, Botswana could already have achieved the 90-day strategic reserve target.

Instead, these projects remain largely idle.

The reason is not a lack of land.
It is not a lack of ideas.

The problem is financial architecture.

Across Botswana, and indeed much of Africa, there is a structural challenge in financing citizen-owned infrastructure projects.

Local financial markets often prefer:

Greenfield infrastructure projects, particularly those led by emerging local entrepreneurs, struggle to access financing.

Fuel depot projects are a perfect example.

Even before construction begins, developers must obtain building permits and approvals. In many cases, the cost of securing these approvals for a very small fuel depot can reach P500,000 or more.

Yet many Batswana who own land zoned for fuel infrastructure cannot afford this initial step.

Ironically, the land itself is often worth more than the permit cost, but the land value cannot be used to finance the early-stage approvals required by lenders.

Government initiatives do exist to assist entrepreneurs.

The CEDA–LEA Project Facilitation Fund, for example, can contribute up to P200,000 for pre-feasibility work.

While helpful, this support falls short of the amount needed to fully prepare projects for financing.

The result is predictable:

Projects stall at the early development stage and never reach financial close.

Another major challenge is the lack of coordination across institutions involved in the fuel supply chain.

Key stakeholders include:

Unfortunately, these institutions often operate in silos.

Their requirements sometimes conflict. Coordination is limited. Risk appetite for greenfield infrastructure is extremely low.

At the same time, the trade finance and commodity trading requirements used by financial institutions are often far beyond the reach of emerging citizen-owned oil companies.

This creates a barrier to entry that effectively locks out local entrepreneurs from participating in the fuel distribution value chain.

The situation Botswana faces in 2026 is therefore not simply an energy problem.

It is a capital allocation problem.

For years, the financial system has been reluctant to finance locally conceived infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, the country has continued to rely heavily on external supply chains.

The result is clear today:

What could have been solved a decade ago is now becoming a national vulnerability.

Botswana’s fuel security challenge offers a broader lesson.

When countries fail to finance their own strategic infrastructure, they eventually pay the price in vulnerability.

The same lesson applies to:

Now, here is what we should all ponder: there is a war in the Middle East. In times of war, capital tends to seek safe havens. Capital is allocated to real money, gold, silver, and lately, bitcoin. Global fund managers are moving capital to safe havens. Botswana and Africa are not classified as safe havens. Actually, our economies are emerging and risky.

Therefore, raising capital in the current geo-political landscape is going to be “a bit of a challenge,” to say the least.

Strategic sectors cannot rely entirely on external capital or imported solutions.

They require domestic investment, coordinated institutions, and a financial system that supports long-term infrastructure development.

Botswana still has time to correct course.

What is needed now is:

If these changes are made, Botswana can still build the fuel infrastructure it needs.

But the window for action is closing.

Energy security is not something that can be built overnight.

It requires foresight, coordination, and a willingness to invest in national resilience long before the crisis arrives.

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